Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1263
Accuracy
58.4%
Baseline
57.7%
Brier score
0.239
Log loss
0.67
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 822 | 54.5% | 0.246 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 412 | 65.8% | 0.223 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 29 | 62.1% | 0.242 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=1
26.2% / 0.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=46
37.5% / 47.8%
0.4-0.5 · n=413
45.0% / 49.4%
0.5-0.6 · n=409
55.3% / 58.4%
0.6-0.7 · n=366
65.6% / 67.5%
0.7-0.8 · n=28
71.5% / 60.7%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1263 | 58.4% | 729 / 534 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 421 | 66.7% |
| 20.5 | 421 | 57.0% |
| 21.5 | 421 | 51.3% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Wildcard — Eyeballers | 20.5 · nuke | over | 53.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Wildcard — Eyeballers | 19.5 · nuke | over | 65.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 46.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 59.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 21.5 · mirage | over | 42.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 20.5 · mirage | over | 58.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 19.5 · mirage | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 21.5 · cache | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 20.5 · cache | over | 50.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | 19.5 · cache | over | 63.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 21.5 · anubis | over | 47.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 20.5 · anubis | over | 62.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 19.5 · anubis | over | 66.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 21.5 · cache | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 19.5 · cache | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 21.5 · nuke | over | 47.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 20.5 · nuke | over | 58.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Misa — Permitta | 19.5 · nuke | over | 69.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ENCE Prospect — SINQU REHTI | 21.5 · nuke | over | 37.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ENCE Prospect — SINQU REHTI | 20.5 · nuke | over | 41.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ENCE Prospect — SINQU REHTI | 19.5 · nuke | over | 68.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ENCE Prospect — SINQU REHTI | 21.5 · cache | over | 38.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ENCE Prospect — SINQU REHTI | 20.5 · cache | over | 45.0% | won |