Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
208
Accuracy
57.2%
Baseline
51.9%
Brier score
0.251
Log loss
0.699
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260911020820
- Trained
- 2026-09-11 05:06 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-14 09:30 UTC+3 — 2026-07-18 03:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-18 04:00 UTC+3 — 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6156
- Holdout rows
- 1539
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 88 | 56.8% | 0.244 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 75 | 56.0% | 0.25 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 40 | 60.0% | 0.263 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.298 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=19
26.2% / 42.1%
0.3-0.4 · n=35
35.4% / 45.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=37
45.8% / 43.2%
0.5-0.6 · n=51
55.3% / 56.9%
0.6-0.7 · n=40
63.4% / 57.5%
0.7-0.8 · n=21
73.8% / 61.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=5
86.8% / 60.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 208 | 57.2% | 119 / 89 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Winner | BOJONG — MADMANgg | MADMANgg | 42.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Zotix — ex-VP.Prodigy | Zotix | 53.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | WBT — Banger Gang | WBT | 53.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | DINERO — Nexora | DINERO | 61.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Fire Flux — TSA Green | TSA Green | 50.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | LFO 7 — Nexora | Nexora | 39.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Banger Gang — WBT Academy | Banger Gang | 64.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Banda Chuya — LPH Gaming | LPH Gaming | 43.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:20 UTC+3 | Winner | Luminosity Gaming — LP | Luminosity Gaming | 53.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:15 UTC+3 | Winner | ShindeN — paiN | paiN | 43.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | B8 — Nuclear Tigeres | B8 | 66.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — B8 | B8 | 25.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ShindeN — paiN | paiN | 46.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Spirit Academy Green — Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 35.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SINQU Esports — Misa | Misa | 24.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 1WIN — Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1WIN | 53.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SINQU Esports — Misa | Misa | 24.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | Bushido Wildcats | 61.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | Bushido Wildcats | 60.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 57.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Walczaki — ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 50.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 19:50 UTC+3 | Winner | M80 — 6666 | M80 | 85.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 18:30 UTC+3 | Winner | gothboiclique — The Golden Horde | gothboiclique | 64.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 18:30 UTC+3 | Winner | gothboiclique — Golden Horde | gothboiclique | 54.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Acend — INOX Division | INOX Division | 49.0% | won |