Transparent production metrics

How the CSP model works

The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.

Settled 1272

Accuracy 58.4%

Baseline 58.1%

Brier score 0.238

Log loss 0.669

Quality by confidence

Stated probability	Settled	Accuracy	Brier
0.5-0.6	824	54.4%	0.246
0.6-0.7	419	65.9%	0.223
0.7-0.8	29	65.5%	0.228

Calibration

Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.

0.2-0.3 · n=1

26.2% / 0.0%

0.3-0.4 · n=48

37.5% / 45.8%

0.4-0.5 · n=413

45.0% / 50.1%

0.5-0.6 · n=411

55.4% / 58.9%

0.6-0.7 · n=371

65.6% / 67.4%

0.7-0.8 · n=28

71.5% / 64.3%

Separate from the headline

Experimental models

Validation in progress

Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.

Total maps Round totals

By market

Market	Settled	Accuracy	Won / Lost
Map round totals	1272	58.4%	739 / 533

By line

Map round totals

Line	Settled	Accuracy
19.5	424	67.2%
20.5	424	57.1%
21.5	424	50.9%

Immutable settled history

Prediction archive

2358 rows

Date	Market	Match	Line/Map	Pick	Probability	Outcome
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	19.5 · inferno	over	67.0%	pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	21.5 · nuke	over	50.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	20.5 · nuke	over	57.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	19.5 · nuke	over	66.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	21.5 · mirage	over	46.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	20.5 · mirage	over	60.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	19.5 · mirage	over	68.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	21.5 · ancient	over	51.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	20.5 · ancient	over	61.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Saint Sinners — Mai Tai	19.5 · ancient	over	62.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux	21.5 · dust2	over	42.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux	20.5 · dust2	over	56.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux	19.5 · dust2	over	67.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Leo Team — Team UNiTY	21.5 · ancient	over	43.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Leo Team — Team UNiTY	20.5 · ancient	over	60.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Leo Team — Team UNiTY	19.5 · ancient	over	67.0%	unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Wildcard — Eyeballers	21.5 · cache	over	45.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Wildcard — Eyeballers	20.5 · cache	over	57.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Wildcard — Eyeballers	19.5 · cache	over	68.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Leo Team — Team UNiTY	21.5 · dust2	over	43.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Leo Team — Team UNiTY	20.5 · dust2	over	56.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Leo Team — Team UNiTY	19.5 · dust2	over	67.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux	21.5 · cache	over	39.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux	20.5 · cache	over	54.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux	19.5 · cache	over	66.0%	won