Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
222
Accuracy
56.3%
Baseline
51.8%
Brier score
0.254
Log loss
0.704
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 92 | 55.4% | 0.246 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 86 | 55.8% | 0.253 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 40 | 60.0% | 0.263 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.369 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 40.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=38
35.1% / 50.0%
0.4-0.5 · n=40
45.6% / 42.5%
0.5-0.6 · n=52
55.3% / 53.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=48
63.6% / 60.4%
0.7-0.8 · n=20
73.8% / 60.0%
0.8-0.9 · n=4
86.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 222 | 56.3% | 125 / 97 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Revenge — Legion | Legion | 50.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Misa — Permitta | Permitta | 43.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — SINNERS | SINNERS | 47.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Flyquest — Finishers | Flyquest | 84.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | MIBR — BetBoom | BetBoom | 26.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 5star eSports — NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Legacy — FURIA | FURIA | 30.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — Bet-M 33 | Nuclear Tigeres | 68.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ex-Sashi Academy — Enjoy | Enjoy | 25.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Drama eSports — SINQU Esports | Drama eSports | 59.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ascend — Inner Circle Prospects | Inner Circle Prospects | 46.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | mellren — MORROW | mellren | 75.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Heroic — K27 | Heroic | 58.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — BET-M | Nuclear Tigeres | 72.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bestia — Virtus.Pro | Virtus.Pro | 37.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Drama eSports — SINQU Esports | Drama eSports | 62.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Enjoy — ex-Sashi Academy | Enjoy | 68.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Heroic — K27 | Heroic | 54.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bestia — Virtus.Pro | Virtus.Pro | 35.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | LFO 8 — Finishers | Finishers | 44.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Astralis — 5star eSports | Astralis | 62.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | LFO 8 — Finishers | Finishers | 44.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Magic Esport — Parivision | Parivision | 49.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Alliance — TYLOO | TYLOO | 39.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 9z Team — G2 Esports | G2 Esports | 32.0% | pending |