Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
199
Accuracy
53.3%
Baseline
56.8%
Brier score
0.269
Log loss
0.743
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 94 | 51.1% | 0.252 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 69 | 60.9% | 0.239 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 19 | 36.8% | 0.379 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 15 | 53.3% | 0.351 |
| 0.9-1.0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.423 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.0-0.1 · n=2
8.8% / 50.0%
0.1-0.2 · n=15
16.3% / 46.7%
0.2-0.3 · n=19
25.5% / 63.2%
0.3-0.4 · n=57
35.5% / 31.6%
0.4-0.5 · n=63
44.2% / 47.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=31
55.3% / 48.4%
0.6-0.7 · n=12
64.4% / 25.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total maps | 199 | 53.3% | 86 / 113 |
By line
Total maps
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 199 | 53.3% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Dark Moon — WBT | 2.5 | over | 44.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Dark Moon — WBT Academy | 2.5 | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Black Phoenix — PsychoFace | 2.5 | over | 42.0% | won |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Azuolas — G2 Ares | 2.5 | over | 32.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-08 18:45 UTC+3 | Total maps | Sabertooth — Golden Horde | 2.5 | over | 36.0% | won |
| 2026-09-08 18:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | valarmorghulis — Anger | 2.5 | over | 18.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | K27 — LP | 2.5 | over | 35.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | K27 — LP | 2.5 | over | 57.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-08 17:25 UTC+3 | Total maps | Permitta — train launcher | 2.5 | over | 36.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 17:20 UTC+3 | Total maps | ex-RUSTEC — Entropy | 2.5 | over | 31.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-08 17:15 UTC+3 | Total maps | Phantom Academy — Misa | 2.5 | over | 55.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Bushido Wildcats — NaVi Youth | 2.5 | over | 40.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | G2 Ares — ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.5 | over | 58.0% | won |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | WBT — Basement Boys | 2.5 | over | 42.0% | won |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | mouz NXT — Dark Moon | 2.5 | over | 46.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Basement Boys — WBT Academy | 2.5 | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | G2 Esports — Astralis | 2.5 | over | 41.0% | won |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Nemiga — Color | 2.5 | over | 15.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Nemiga — Color | 2.5 | over | 39.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | FURIA — GamerLegion | 2.5 | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-08 14:20 UTC+3 | Total maps | Alter Ego — Finishers | 2.5 | over | 28.0% | won |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Fortress — ENCE | 2.5 | over | 35.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | mouz NXT — Team UNiTY | 2.5 | over | 63.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Entropy — SAW Youngsters | 2.5 | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-08 13:45 UTC+3 | Total maps | BIG Academy — MORROW | 2.5 | over | 47.0% | won |