Transparent production metrics

How the CSP model works

The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.

Settled 1272

Accuracy 58.4%

Baseline 58.1%

Brier score 0.238

Log loss 0.669

Quality by confidence

Stated probability	Settled	Accuracy	Brier
0.5-0.6	824	54.4%	0.246
0.6-0.7	419	65.9%	0.223
0.7-0.8	29	65.5%	0.228

Calibration

Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.

0.2-0.3 · n=1

26.2% / 0.0%

0.3-0.4 · n=48

37.5% / 45.8%

0.4-0.5 · n=413

45.0% / 50.1%

0.5-0.6 · n=411

55.4% / 58.9%

0.6-0.7 · n=371

65.6% / 67.4%

0.7-0.8 · n=28

71.5% / 64.3%

Separate from the headline

Experimental models

Validation in progress

Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.

Total maps Round totals

By market

Market	Settled	Accuracy	Won / Lost
Map round totals	1272	58.4%	739 / 533

By line

Map round totals

Line	Settled	Accuracy
19.5	424	67.2%
20.5	424	57.1%
21.5	424	50.9%

Immutable settled history

Prediction archive

2358 rows

Date	Market	Match	Line/Map	Pick	Probability	Outcome
2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	HOTU — Team Nemesis	20.5 · ancient	over	54.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	HOTU — Team Nemesis	19.5 · ancient	over	63.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	HOTU — Team Nemesis	21.5 · nuke	over	46.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	HOTU — Team Nemesis	20.5 · nuke	over	54.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	HOTU — Team Nemesis	19.5 · nuke	over	62.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	HOTU — Team Nemesis	21.5 · cache	over	39.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	HOTU — Team Nemesis	20.5 · cache	over	55.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	HOTU — Team Nemesis	19.5 · cache	over	65.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	21.5 · default-mirage	over	45.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	20.5 · default-mirage	over	56.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	19.5 · default-mirage	over	66.0%	lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	21.5 · default-dust2	over	45.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	20.5 · default-dust2	over	56.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	19.5 · default-dust2	over	68.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	21.5 · default-nuke	over	46.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	20.5 · default-nuke	over	57.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle	19.5 · default-nuke	over	68.0%	won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	21.5 · cache	over	49.0%	pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	20.5 · cache	over	53.0%	pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	19.5 · cache	over	66.0%	pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	21.5 · dust2	over	50.0%	pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	20.5 · dust2	over	56.0%	pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	19.5 · dust2	over	65.0%	pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	21.5 · inferno	over	42.0%	pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres	20.5 · inferno	over	55.0%	pending