Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1272
Accuracy
58.4%
Baseline
58.1%
Brier score
0.238
Log loss
0.669
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 824 | 54.4% | 0.246 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 419 | 65.9% | 0.223 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 29 | 65.5% | 0.228 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=1
26.2% / 0.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=48
37.5% / 45.8%
0.4-0.5 · n=413
45.0% / 50.1%
0.5-0.6 · n=411
55.4% / 58.9%
0.6-0.7 · n=371
65.6% / 67.4%
0.7-0.8 · n=28
71.5% / 64.3%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1272 | 58.4% | 739 / 533 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 424 | 67.2% |
| 20.5 | 424 | 57.1% |
| 21.5 | 424 | 50.9% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 21.5 · cache | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 20.5 · cache | over | 60.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 19.5 · cache | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 21.5 · mirage | over | 49.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 20.5 · mirage | over | 60.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 19.5 · mirage | over | 70.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 21.5 · anubis | over | 46.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 20.5 · anubis | over | 59.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 19.5 · anubis | over | 67.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 21.5 · cache | over | 46.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 20.5 · cache | over | 59.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 19.5 · cache | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 52.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 62.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 21.5 · default-inferno | over | 42.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 20.5 · default-inferno | over | 53.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 19.5 · default-inferno | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 21.5 · default-ancient | over | 51.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 20.5 · default-ancient | over | 61.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 19.5 · default-ancient | over | 72.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | HOTU — Nemesis | 21.5 · ancient | over | 42.0% | lost |