Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1275
Accuracy
58.4%
Baseline
58.3%
Brier score
0.238
Log loss
0.669
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 825 | 54.3% | 0.246 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 420 | 66.0% | 0.223 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 30 | 66.7% | 0.223 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=1
26.2% / 0.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=48
37.5% / 45.8%
0.4-0.5 · n=413
45.0% / 50.4%
0.5-0.6 · n=412
55.3% / 59.0%
0.6-0.7 · n=372
65.6% / 67.5%
0.7-0.8 · n=29
71.5% / 65.5%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1275 | 58.4% | 743 / 532 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 425 | 67.3% |
| 20.5 | 425 | 57.4% |
| 21.5 | 425 | 50.6% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 19.5 · ancient | over | 63.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 21.5 · mirage | over | 44.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 20.5 · mirage | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 19.5 · mirage | over | 64.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 21.5 · inferno | over | 43.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 20.5 · inferno | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 19.5 · inferno | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 21.5 · inferno | over | 46.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 20.5 · inferno | over | 60.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 19.5 · inferno | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 21.5 · nuke | over | 45.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 20.5 · nuke | over | 58.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 19.5 · nuke | over | 65.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 21.5 · cache | over | 45.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 3DMAX — BBL | 19.5 · cache | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 21.5 · mirage | over | 42.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 20.5 · mirage | over | 61.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 19.5 · mirage | over | 65.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 21.5 · nuke | over | 42.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 20.5 · nuke | over | 56.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 19.5 · nuke | over | 64.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 21.5 · inferno | over | 41.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 20.5 · inferno | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | 19.5 · inferno | over | 61.0% | won |