Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1290
Accuracy
58.2%
Baseline
58.1%
Brier score
0.239
Log loss
0.67
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 834 | 54.3% | 0.246 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 426 | 65.3% | 0.225 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 30 | 66.7% | 0.223 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=1
26.2% / 0.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=47
37.5% / 46.8%
0.4-0.5 · n=418
45.0% / 50.2%
0.5-0.6 · n=416
55.4% / 58.9%
0.6-0.7 · n=379
65.6% / 66.8%
0.7-0.8 · n=29
71.5% / 65.5%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1290 | 58.2% | 749 / 541 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 430 | 67.0% |
| 20.5 | 430 | 57.0% |
| 21.5 | 430 | 50.7% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | pivstar — Golden Horde | 20.5 · ancient | over | 53.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | pivstar — Golden Horde | 19.5 · ancient | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | pivstar — Golden Horde | 21.5 · inferno | over | 53.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | pivstar — Golden Horde | 20.5 · inferno | over | 53.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | pivstar — Golden Horde | 19.5 · inferno | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 21.5 · cache | over | 49.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 19.5 · cache | over | 67.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 21.5 · ancient | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 20.5 · ancient | over | 57.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 19.5 · ancient | over | 66.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 46.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 52.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Acend — 100 Thieves | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 21.5 · default-nuke | over | 43.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 20.5 · default-nuke | over | 58.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 19.5 · default-nuke | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 21.5 · default-dust2 | over | 47.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 20.5 · default-dust2 | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 19.5 · default-dust2 | over | 65.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 21.5 · default-ancient | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 20.5 · default-ancient | over | 62.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | 19.5 · default-ancient | over | 65.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 21.5 · ancient | over | 45.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Falcons Force — mellren | 20.5 · ancient | over | 56.0% | unknown |