Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1272
Accuracy
58.5%
Baseline
58.9%
Brier score
0.238
Log loss
0.669
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 819 | 54.3% | 0.246 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 424 | 66.0% | 0.223 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 29 | 65.5% | 0.228 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=1
26.2% / 0.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=44
37.7% / 47.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=414
45.0% / 51.0%
0.5-0.6 · n=405
55.4% / 59.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=380
65.6% / 67.6%
0.7-0.8 · n=28
71.6% / 64.3%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1272 | 58.5% | 749 / 523 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 424 | 67.7% |
| 20.5 | 424 | 58.0% |
| 21.5 | 424 | 49.8% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 19.5 · nuke | over | 65.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 21.5 · inferno | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 20.5 · inferno | over | 57.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 19.5 · inferno | over | 67.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 21.5 · ancient | over | 43.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 20.5 · ancient | over | 58.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 19.5 · ancient | over | 67.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 44.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 56.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 69.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 21.5 · anubis | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 20.5 · anubis | over | 61.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 19.5 · anubis | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 21.5 · nuke | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 20.5 · nuke | over | 55.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 19.5 · nuke | over | 68.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 21.5 · cache | over | 45.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — 1WIN | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | FLXRE — MADMANgg | 21.5 · cache | over | 44.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | FLXRE — MADMANgg | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | FLXRE — MADMANgg | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | FLXRE — MADMANgg | 21.5 · ancient | over | 42.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | FLXRE — MADMANgg | 20.5 · ancient | over | 54.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | FLXRE — MADMANgg | 19.5 · ancient | over | 65.0% | won |