Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1260
Accuracy
58.2%
Baseline
58.6%
Brier score
0.239
Log loss
0.67
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 809 | 54.0% | 0.247 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 422 | 65.6% | 0.224 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 29 | 65.5% | 0.228 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=1
26.2% / 0.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=44
37.7% / 47.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=410
45.0% / 51.0%
0.5-0.6 · n=399
55.4% / 59.1%
0.6-0.7 · n=378
65.6% / 67.2%
0.7-0.8 · n=28
71.6% / 64.3%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1260 | 58.2% | 738 / 522 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 420 | 67.1% |
| 20.5 | 420 | 57.6% |
| 21.5 | 420 | 49.8% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | KUUSAMO — LPH Gaming | 20.5 · inferno | over | 53.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | KUUSAMO — LPH Gaming | 19.5 · inferno | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | KUUSAMO — LPH Gaming | 21.5 · cache | over | 46.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | KUUSAMO — LPH Gaming | 20.5 · cache | over | 55.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | KUUSAMO — LPH Gaming | 19.5 · cache | over | 71.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 47.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 55.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 64.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 21.5 · mirage | over | 47.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 19.5 · mirage | over | 63.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 21.5 · ancient | over | 44.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 20.5 · ancient | over | 49.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | 19.5 · ancient | over | 66.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 21.5 · cache | over | 48.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 20.5 · cache | over | 58.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 19.5 · cache | over | 65.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 21.5 · ancient | over | 44.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 20.5 · ancient | over | 53.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 19.5 · ancient | over | 64.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 21.5 · nuke | over | 42.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 20.5 · nuke | over | 53.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy — Permitta | 19.5 · nuke | over | 65.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 21.5 · inferno | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | 20.5 · inferno | over | 57.0% | lost |