Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1452
Accuracy
57.5%
Baseline
57.9%
Brier score
0.241
Log loss
0.674
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 950 | 53.3% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 483 | 66.0% | 0.224 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 19 | 52.6% | 0.283 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=36
37.3% / 41.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=488
44.9% / 51.2%
0.5-0.6 · n=462
55.4% / 58.0%
0.6-0.7 · n=447
65.6% / 66.7%
0.7-0.8 · n=16
71.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1452 | 57.5% | 840 / 612 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 484 | 66.5% |
| 20.5 | 484 | 56.2% |
| 21.5 | 484 | 49.8% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · ancient | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · ancient | over | 66.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 21.5 · mirage | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · mirage | over | 57.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · mirage | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 21.5 · anubis | over | 31.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 20.5 · anubis | over | 37.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 19.5 · anubis | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 21.5 · cache | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · cache | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 21.5 · cache | over | 32.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 20.5 · cache | over | 36.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 19.5 · cache | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · anubis | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 20.5 · anubis | over | 57.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 19.5 · anubis | over | 70.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · ancient | over | 46.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 20.5 · ancient | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 19.5 · ancient | over | 67.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · cache | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 20.5 · cache | over | 52.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 19.5 · cache | over | 69.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Sashi — PCIFIC Esports | 21.5 · inferno | over | 46.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Sashi — PCIFIC Esports | 20.5 · inferno | over | 55.0% | lost |