Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1278
Accuracy
58.2%
Baseline
58.8%
Brier score
0.239
Log loss
0.67
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 821 | 53.8% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 429 | 66.2% | 0.222 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 28 | 64.3% | 0.234 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=1
26.2% / 0.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=43
37.6% / 46.5%
0.4-0.5 · n=416
45.0% / 51.4%
0.5-0.6 · n=405
55.4% / 59.3%
0.6-0.7 · n=386
65.6% / 67.6%
0.7-0.8 · n=27
71.5% / 63.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1278 | 58.2% | 752 / 526 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 426 | 67.4% |
| 20.5 | 426 | 58.0% |
| 21.5 | 426 | 49.3% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 46.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 21.5 · cache | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 20.5 · cache | over | 50.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 19.5 · cache | over | 54.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 21.5 · cache | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 20.5 · cache | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 19.5 · cache | over | 63.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 21.5 · inferno | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 20.5 · inferno | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 19.5 · inferno | over | 63.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 21.5 · mirage | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 20.5 · mirage | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 19.5 · mirage | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 21.5 · default-nuke | over | 48.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 20.5 · default-nuke | over | 61.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 19.5 · default-nuke | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 21.5 · default-ancient | over | 47.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 20.5 · default-ancient | over | 58.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 19.5 · default-ancient | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 21.5 · default-dust2 | over | 49.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 20.5 · default-dust2 | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 19.5 · default-dust2 | over | 65.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Navi Junior — OLDBOYS PL | 21.5 · nuke | over | 45.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Navi Junior — OLDBOYS PL | 20.5 · nuke | over | 55.0% | won |