Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1296
Accuracy
58.3%
Baseline
59.0%
Brier score
0.239
Log loss
0.671
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 831 | 54.2% | 0.247 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 436 | 65.8% | 0.224 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 29 | 62.1% | 0.244 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=2
26.6% / 50.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=46
37.4% / 47.8%
0.4-0.5 · n=421
45.0% / 51.3%
0.5-0.6 · n=410
55.4% / 59.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=390
65.6% / 67.4%
0.7-0.8 · n=27
71.5% / 63.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1296 | 58.3% | 764 / 532 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 432 | 67.4% |
| 20.5 | 432 | 58.3% |
| 21.5 | 432 | 49.1% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | 21.5 · default-cache | over | 45.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | 20.5 · default-cache | over | 58.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | 19.5 · default-cache | over | 60.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | 21.5 · default-mirage | over | 45.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | 20.5 · default-mirage | over | 57.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | 19.5 · default-mirage | over | 74.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 21.5 · mirage | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 20.5 · mirage | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 19.5 · mirage | over | 61.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 38.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 46.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 21.5 · cache | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 20.5 · cache | over | 50.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | gothboiclique — Quintessence | 19.5 · cache | over | 54.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 21.5 · cache | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 20.5 · cache | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 19.5 · cache | over | 63.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 21.5 · inferno | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 20.5 · inferno | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 19.5 · inferno | over | 63.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 21.5 · mirage | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 20.5 · mirage | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Map round totals | TitanFlow — BOJONG | 19.5 · mirage | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Galorys — Back to Back | 21.5 · default-nuke | over | 48.0% | lost |