Transparent production metrics

How the CSP model works

The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.

Settled 1299

Accuracy 58.4%

Baseline 58.6%

Brier score 0.239

Log loss 0.671

Quality by confidence

Stated probability	Settled	Accuracy	Brier
0.5-0.6	834	54.3%	0.247
0.6-0.7	435	66.0%	0.224
0.7-0.8	30	63.3%	0.238

Calibration

Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.

0.2-0.3 · n=3

26.8% / 33.3%

0.3-0.4 · n=46

37.6% / 45.7%

0.4-0.5 · n=423

45.0% / 50.8%

0.5-0.6 · n=411

55.4% / 59.6%

0.6-0.7 · n=389

65.6% / 67.4%

0.7-0.8 · n=27

71.5% / 63.0%

Separate from the headline

Experimental models

Validation in progress

Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.

Total maps Round totals

By market

Market	Settled	Accuracy	Won / Lost
Map round totals	1299	58.4%	761 / 538

By line

Map round totals

Line	Settled	Accuracy
19.5	433	67.7%
20.5	433	58.7%
21.5	433	49.0%

Immutable settled history

Prediction archive

2370 rows

Date	Market	Match	Line/Map	Pick	Probability	Outcome
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue	19.5 · inferno	over	59.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Villainous — Without a Roof	21.5 · inferno	over	35.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Villainous — Without a Roof	20.5 · inferno	over	47.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Villainous — Without a Roof	19.5 · inferno	over	47.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue	21.5 · nuke	over	46.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue	20.5 · nuke	over	49.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue	19.5 · nuke	over	53.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Villainous — Without a Roof	21.5 · mirage	over	37.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Villainous — Without a Roof	20.5 · mirage	over	47.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Villainous — Without a Roof	19.5 · mirage	over	47.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue	21.5 · ancient	over	45.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue	20.5 · ancient	over	45.0%	pending
2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue	19.5 · ancient	over	49.0%	pending
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	21.5 · default-nuke	over	45.0%	lost
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	20.5 · default-nuke	over	53.0%	lost
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	19.5 · default-nuke	over	69.0%	lost
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	21.5 · default-cache	over	45.0%	lost
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	20.5 · default-cache	over	58.0%	lost
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	19.5 · default-cache	over	60.0%	lost
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	21.5 · default-mirage	over	45.0%	lost
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	20.5 · default-mirage	over	57.0%	lost
2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3	Map round totals	Fluxo — DENDELE CS	19.5 · default-mirage	over	74.0%	lost
2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3	Map round totals	gothboiclique — Quintessence	21.5 · mirage	over	41.0%	pending
2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3	Map round totals	gothboiclique — Quintessence	20.5 · mirage	over	51.0%	pending
2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3	Map round totals	gothboiclique — Quintessence	19.5 · mirage	over	61.0%	pending