Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1314
Accuracy
58.2%
Baseline
57.9%
Brier score
0.24
Log loss
0.674
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 844 | 54.5% | 0.247 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 444 | 65.3% | 0.226 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 26 | 57.7% | 0.262 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=46
37.6% / 45.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=431
44.9% / 50.1%
0.5-0.6 · n=413
55.4% / 59.3%
0.6-0.7 · n=398
65.6% / 66.6%
0.7-0.8 · n=23
71.5% / 56.5%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1314 | 58.2% | 761 / 553 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 438 | 66.7% |
| 20.5 | 438 | 58.2% |
| 21.5 | 438 | 49.8% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 21.5 · nuke | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 20.5 · nuke | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 19.5 · nuke | over | 67.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 21.5 · ancient | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 20.5 · ancient | over | 57.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 19.5 · ancient | over | 66.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 21.5 · anubis | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 20.5 · anubis | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Marsborne — Olympus | 19.5 · anubis | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 21.5 · mirage | over | 48.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 20.5 · mirage | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 19.5 · mirage | over | 66.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 50.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 61.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 21.5 · inferno | over | 40.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 20.5 · inferno | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 19.5 · inferno | over | 62.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 40.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 48.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 48.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 21.5 · inferno | over | 48.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 20.5 · inferno | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 19.5 · inferno | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 21.5 · inferno | over | 35.0% | pending |