Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1317
Accuracy
58.5%
Baseline
58.2%
Brier score
0.24
Log loss
0.672
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 847 | 54.8% | 0.247 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 445 | 65.6% | 0.225 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 25 | 60.0% | 0.253 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=46
37.6% / 45.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=434
44.9% / 50.0%
0.5-0.6 · n=413
55.5% / 59.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=399
65.6% / 66.9%
0.7-0.8 · n=22
71.6% / 59.1%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1317 | 58.5% | 766 / 551 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 439 | 67.0% |
| 20.5 | 439 | 58.8% |
| 21.5 | 439 | 49.9% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Overtake Sector — Playing for fun | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 67.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 21.5 · inferno | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 20.5 · inferno | over | 52.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 19.5 · inferno | over | 54.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 21.5 · ancient | over | 49.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 20.5 · ancient | over | 53.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 19.5 · ancient | over | 54.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Overtake Sector — Playing for fun | 21.5 · ancient | over | 49.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Overtake Sector — Playing for fun | 20.5 · ancient | over | 60.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Overtake Sector — Playing for fun | 19.5 · ancient | over | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 21.5 · anubis | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 20.5 · anubis | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | 19.5 · anubis | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Overtake Sector — Playing for fun | 21.5 · cache | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Overtake Sector — Playing for fun | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Overtake Sector — Playing for fun | 19.5 · cache | over | 65.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 21.5 · mirage | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 20.5 · mirage | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 19.5 · mirage | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 49.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 57.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 21.5 · inferno | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 20.5 · inferno | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | CLUB 333 — Villainous | 19.5 · inferno | over | 53.0% | pending |