Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
220
Accuracy
56.4%
Baseline
52.3%
Brier score
0.252
Log loss
0.7
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 93 | 54.8% | 0.246 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 81 | 55.6% | 0.252 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 41 | 61.0% | 0.258 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.298 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 40.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=37
35.3% / 48.6%
0.4-0.5 · n=40
45.6% / 45.0%
0.5-0.6 · n=53
55.2% / 54.7%
0.6-0.7 · n=44
63.4% / 59.1%
0.7-0.8 · n=21
73.8% / 61.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=5
86.8% / 60.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 220 | 56.4% | 124 / 96 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3 | Winner | HOTU — Nemesis | HOTU | 57.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 14:25 UTC+3 | Winner | Bebop — WBT Academy | Bebop | 52.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 14:10 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 25.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 14:10 UTC+3 | Winner | 5star eSports — NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 27.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Leo Team — Team UNiTY | Team UNiTY | 50.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres | SINNERS | 64.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Wildcard — Eyeballers | Wildcard | 74.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Saint Sinners — Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bebop — WBT Academy | Bebop | 52.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 46.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Noir Verse — ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 43.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Wildcard — Eyeballers | Wildcard | 72.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Saint Sinners — Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 49.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Revenge — Legion | Legion | 50.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Winner | ENCE Prospect — SINQU REHTI | SINQU REHTI | 23.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Revenge — Legion | Legion | 50.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Misa — Permitta | Permitta | 43.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — SINNERS | SINNERS | 47.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Flyquest — Finishers | Flyquest | 84.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | MIBR — BetBoom | BetBoom | 26.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 5star eSports — NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Legacy — FURIA | FURIA | 30.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — Bet-M 33 | Nuclear Tigeres | 68.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ex-Sashi Academy — Enjoy | Enjoy | 25.0% | pending |