CSP CSP.GG

Transparent production metrics

How the CSP model works

The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.

Settled 1482
Accuracy 57.8%
Baseline 58.4%
Brier score 0.24
Log loss 0.673

Quality by confidence

Stated probabilitySettledAccuracyBrier
0.5-0.696153.5%0.248
0.6-0.750366.4%0.222
0.7-0.81850.0%0.296

Calibration

Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.

0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=44
37.5% / 43.2%
0.4-0.5 · n=495
44.9% / 51.5%
0.5-0.6 · n=466
55.6% / 58.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=459
65.6% / 67.3%
0.7-0.8 · n=15
71.7% / 46.7%

Separate from the headline

Experimental models

Validation in progress

Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.

Total mapsRound totals

By market

MarketSettledAccuracyWon / Lost
Map round totals 1482 57.8% 865 / 617

By line

Map round totals

LineSettledAccuracy
19.5 494 67.2%
20.5 494 57.5%
21.5 494 48.8%

Immutable settled history

Prediction archive

2556 rows
DateMarketMatchLine/MapPickProbabilityOutcome
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres 19.5 · inferno over 67.0% pending
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 21.5 · nuke over 50.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 20.5 · nuke over 57.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 19.5 · nuke over 66.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 21.5 · mirage over 46.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 20.5 · mirage over 60.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 19.5 · mirage over 68.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 21.5 · ancient over 51.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 20.5 · ancient over 61.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Saint Sinners — Mai Tai 19.5 · ancient over 62.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux 21.5 · dust2 over 42.0% won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux 20.5 · dust2 over 56.0% won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux 19.5 · dust2 over 67.0% won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Leo Team — Team UNiTY 21.5 · ancient over 43.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Leo Team — Team UNiTY 20.5 · ancient over 60.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Leo Team — Team UNiTY 19.5 · ancient over 67.0% unknown
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Wildcard — Eyeballers 21.5 · cache over 45.0% lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Wildcard — Eyeballers 20.5 · cache over 57.0% lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Wildcard — Eyeballers 19.5 · cache over 68.0% lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Leo Team — Team UNiTY 21.5 · dust2 over 43.0% lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Leo Team — Team UNiTY 20.5 · dust2 over 56.0% lost
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Leo Team — Team UNiTY 19.5 · dust2 over 67.0% won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux 21.5 · cache over 39.0% won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux 20.5 · cache over 54.0% won
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC+3 Map round totals Inner Circle Academy — Fire Flux 19.5 · cache over 66.0% won