Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1476
Accuracy
57.8%
Baseline
58.3%
Brier score
0.24
Log loss
0.673
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 958 | 53.4% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 500 | 66.4% | 0.222 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 18 | 50.0% | 0.296 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=42
37.5% / 42.9%
0.4-0.5 · n=494
44.9% / 51.4%
0.5-0.6 · n=464
55.6% / 58.6%
0.6-0.7 · n=458
65.6% / 67.2%
0.7-0.8 · n=15
71.7% / 46.7%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1476 | 57.8% | 860 / 616 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 492 | 67.1% |
| 20.5 | 492 | 57.5% |
| 21.5 | 492 | 48.8% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 21.5 · cache | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 20.5 · cache | over | 60.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 19.5 · cache | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 21.5 · mirage | over | 49.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 20.5 · mirage | over | 60.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | megoshort — Misa | 19.5 · mirage | over | 70.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 21.5 · anubis | over | 46.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 20.5 · anubis | over | 59.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 19.5 · anubis | over | 67.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 21.5 · cache | over | 46.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 20.5 · cache | over | 59.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 19.5 · cache | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 52.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 62.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 21.5 · default-inferno | over | 42.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 20.5 · default-inferno | over | 53.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 19.5 · default-inferno | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 21.5 · default-ancient | over | 51.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 20.5 · default-ancient | over | 61.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Magic Esport — Alliance | 19.5 · default-ancient | over | 72.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3 | Map round totals | HOTU — Team Nemesis | 21.5 · ancient | over | 42.0% | lost |