Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
220
Accuracy
56.4%
Baseline
52.3%
Brier score
0.252
Log loss
0.7
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 93 | 54.8% | 0.246 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 81 | 55.6% | 0.252 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 41 | 61.0% | 0.258 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.298 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 40.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=37
35.3% / 48.6%
0.4-0.5 · n=40
45.6% / 45.0%
0.5-0.6 · n=53
55.2% / 54.7%
0.6-0.7 · n=44
63.4% / 59.1%
0.7-0.8 · n=21
73.8% / 61.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=5
86.8% / 60.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 220 | 56.4% | 124 / 96 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 63.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Team Spirit Academy — Permitta | Team Spirit Academy | 62.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Winner | FLXRE — MADMANgg | MADMANgg | 38.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 18:30 UTC+3 | Winner | pivstar — Golden Horde | Golden Horde | 46.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 17:45 UTC+3 | Winner | Acend — 100 Thieves | Acend | 58.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 17:20 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemiga — K27 | Nemiga | 54.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 1WIN — B8 | B8 | 22.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ReThink — Misa | Misa | 37.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | mellren — Falcons Force | mellren | 55.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Falcons Force — mellren | mellren | 38.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 3DMAX — BBL | 3DMAX | 77.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Acend — 100 Thieves | Acend | 55.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ReThink — Misa | Misa | 37.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | ShindeN | 54.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 3DMAX — BBL | 3DMAX | 78.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ShindeN — Turma do Pagode | ShindeN | 52.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | EAC — ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 32.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 1WIN — B8 | B8 | 22.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | megoshort — Misa | Misa | 36.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Winner | Bushido Wildcats — MORROW | Bushido Wildcats | 72.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 16:45 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemiga — K27 | Nemiga | 51.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 16:15 UTC+3 | Winner | G2 Esports — 5star eSports | G2 Esports | 67.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | TYLOO — NEXVOID | TYLOO | 70.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Magic Esport — Alliance | Magic Esport | 57.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 14:45 UTC+3 | Winner | HOTU — Nemesis | HOTU | 63.0% | won |