Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
200
Accuracy
53.5%
Baseline
56.5%
Brier score
0.268
Log loss
0.741
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 94 | 51.1% | 0.251 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 69 | 60.9% | 0.239 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 20 | 40.0% | 0.364 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 15 | 53.3% | 0.351 |
| 0.9-1.0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.423 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.0-0.1 · n=2
8.8% / 50.0%
0.1-0.2 · n=15
16.3% / 46.7%
0.2-0.3 · n=20
25.7% / 60.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=57
35.6% / 31.6%
0.4-0.5 · n=64
44.1% / 48.4%
0.5-0.6 · n=30
55.3% / 50.0%
0.6-0.7 · n=12
64.4% / 25.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total maps | 200 | 53.5% | 87 / 113 |
By line
Total maps
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 200 | 53.5% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | Misa — Permitta | 2.5 | over | 29.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | ENCE Prospect — SINQU REHTI | 2.5 | over | 17.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Legacy — FURIA | 2.5 | over | 57.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Nuclear Tigeres — BET-M | 2.5 | over | 28.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Drama eSports — SINQU Esports | 2.5 | over | 34.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Bestia — Virtus.Pro | 2.5 | over | 32.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Ascend — Inner Circle Prospects | 2.5 | over | 31.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Heroic — K27 | 2.5 | over | 48.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | mellren — MORROW | 2.5 | over | 43.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Magic Esport — Parivision | 2.5 | over | 36.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | 9z Team — G2 Esports | 2.5 | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Alliance — TYLOO | 2.5 | over | 31.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Team Liquid — antivalue | 2.5 | over | 12.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Marsborne — Chicken Coop Esports | 2.5 | over | 25.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-10 04:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | NuTorious — Wanted Goons | 2.5 | over | 50.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 03:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | Marsborne — The Holy Squid Empire | 2.5 | over | 53.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 03:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | KODEX ESPORTS — Fathom Gaming | 2.5 | over | 33.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | paiN — Back to Back | 2.5 | over | 15.0% | won |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Without a Roof — NRG | 2.5 | over | 25.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Imperial — Galorys | 2.5 | over | 31.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-09 21:45 UTC+3 | Total maps | pivstar — DINERO | 2.5 | over | 30.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-09 21:15 UTC+3 | Total maps | K27 — Team WW | 2.5 | over | 18.0% | won |
| 2026-09-09 21:15 UTC+3 | Total maps | MASQ — MADMANgg | 2.5 | over | 41.0% | won |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | EsportBERG — Falcons Force | 2.5 | over | 31.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | WBT — eSuba | 2.5 | over | 30.0% | pending |