Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1446
Accuracy
58.0%
Baseline
58.2%
Brier score
0.24
Log loss
0.672
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 940 | 53.4% | 0.249 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 488 | 67.0% | 0.221 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 18 | 50.0% | 0.296 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=38
37.4% / 39.5%
0.4-0.5 · n=483
44.9% / 51.3%
0.5-0.6 · n=457
55.6% / 58.4%
0.6-0.7 · n=450
65.6% / 67.6%
0.7-0.8 · n=15
71.7% / 46.7%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1446 | 58.0% | 842 / 604 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 482 | 67.4% |
| 20.5 | 482 | 57.5% |
| 21.5 | 482 | 49.0% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 21.5 · mirage | over | 48.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 20.5 · mirage | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 19.5 · mirage | over | 66.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 50.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 61.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 21.5 · inferno | over | 40.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 20.5 · inferno | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Imperial — Pain Gaming | 19.5 · inferno | over | 62.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 40.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 48.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 48.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 21.5 · inferno | over | 48.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 20.5 · inferno | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 19.5 · inferno | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 21.5 · inferno | over | 35.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 20.5 · inferno | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 19.5 · inferno | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 21.5 · nuke | over | 46.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 20.5 · nuke | over | 49.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 19.5 · nuke | over | 53.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 21.5 · mirage | over | 37.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 20.5 · mirage | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Villainous — Without a Roof | 19.5 · mirage | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | 21.5 · ancient | over | 45.0% | pending |