Transparent production metrics

How the CSP model works

The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.

Settled 1476

Accuracy 57.7%

Baseline 57.7%

Brier score 0.24

Log loss 0.673

Quality by confidence

Stated probability	Settled	Accuracy	Brier
0.5-0.6	962	53.3%	0.248
0.6-0.7	494	66.8%	0.221
0.7-0.8	20	45.0%	0.316

Calibration

Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.

0.2-0.3 · n=3

26.8% / 33.3%

0.3-0.4 · n=38

37.6% / 39.5%

0.4-0.5 · n=493

44.9% / 50.9%

0.5-0.6 · n=469

55.6% / 57.8%

0.6-0.7 · n=456

65.6% / 67.3%

0.7-0.8 · n=17

71.5% / 41.2%

Separate from the headline

Experimental models

Validation in progress

Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.

Total maps Round totals

By market

Market	Settled	Accuracy	Won / Lost
Map round totals	1476	57.7%	852 / 624

By line

Map round totals

Line	Settled	Accuracy
19.5	492	66.9%
20.5	492	56.9%
21.5	492	49.4%

Immutable settled history

Prediction archive

2574 rows

Date	Market	Match	Line/Map	Pick	Probability	Outcome
2026-09-11 04:00 UTC+3	Map round totals	LAG — E-Gaming	19.5 · inferno	over	57.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	21.5 · dust2	over	44.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	20.5 · dust2	over	54.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	19.5 · dust2	over	64.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	21.5 · inferno	over	47.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	20.5 · inferno	over	56.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	19.5 · inferno	over	63.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	21.5 · ancient	over	44.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	20.5 · ancient	over	53.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3	Map round totals	Zomblers LLC — For Fun	19.5 · ancient	over	64.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Overtake Sector — Playing for fun	21.5 · dust2	over	49.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Overtake Sector — Playing for fun	20.5 · dust2	over	56.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Overtake Sector — Playing for fun	19.5 · dust2	over	67.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	21.5 · inferno	over	47.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	20.5 · inferno	over	52.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	19.5 · inferno	over	54.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	21.5 · ancient	over	49.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	20.5 · ancient	over	53.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	19.5 · ancient	over	54.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Overtake Sector — Playing for fun	21.5 · ancient	over	49.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Overtake Sector — Playing for fun	20.5 · ancient	over	60.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Overtake Sector — Playing for fun	19.5 · ancient	over	68.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	21.5 · anubis	over	47.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	20.5 · anubis	over	51.0%	pending
2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3	Map round totals	Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen	19.5 · anubis	over	55.0%	pending