Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
217
Accuracy
56.7%
Baseline
52.1%
Brier score
0.252
Log loss
0.701
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 91 | 56.0% | 0.245 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 80 | 55.0% | 0.254 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 41 | 61.0% | 0.258 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.298 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 40.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=37
35.3% / 48.6%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.6% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=52
55.3% / 55.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=43
63.3% / 58.1%
0.7-0.8 · n=21
73.8% / 61.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=5
86.8% / 60.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 217 | 56.7% | 123 / 94 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Winner | Villainous — Without a Roof | Villainous | 74.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Imperial — Pain Gaming | Pain Gaming | 44.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | antivalue | 47.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Villainous — Without a Roof | Villainous | 74.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 01:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Sports Bet Expert — FarmVille | Sports Bet Expert | 54.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3 | Winner | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | Fluxo | 63.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 23:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | Fluxo | 55.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Marsborne — Without a Roof | Marsborne | 70.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Winner | TitanFlow — BOJONG | TitanFlow | 64.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 21:15 UTC+3 | Winner | gothboiclique — Quintessence | Quintessence | 32.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:45 UTC+3 | Winner | Galorys — Back to Back | Galorys | 50.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Navi Junior — OLDBOYS PL | Navi Junior | 54.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | KUUSAMO — LPH Gaming | LPH Gaming | 23.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 20:15 UTC+3 | Winner | SINNERS — Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 49.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Galorys — Back to Back | Back to Back | 42.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | GoldenGitte — Permitta | Permitta | 32.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Fokus — 1WIN | Fokus | 55.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | GoldenGitte — Permitta | Permitta | 32.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Fokus — 1WIN | 1WIN | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Spirit Academy — Permitta | Spirit Academy | 59.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SINNERS — Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 46.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | INOX Division — Black Phoenix | INOX Division | 61.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — INFINITE | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 63.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Spirit Academy — Permitta | Spirit Academy | 62.0% | lost |