Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1536
Accuracy
57.7%
Baseline
57.7%
Brier score
0.241
Log loss
0.674
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 1006 | 53.5% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 510 | 66.5% | 0.222 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 20 | 45.0% | 0.316 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=37
37.5% / 43.2%
0.4-0.5 · n=521
44.8% / 50.7%
0.5-0.6 · n=485
55.5% / 57.9%
0.6-0.7 · n=473
65.6% / 67.2%
0.7-0.8 · n=17
71.5% / 41.2%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1536 | 57.7% | 887 / 649 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 512 | 66.6% |
| 20.5 | 512 | 56.6% |
| 21.5 | 512 | 49.8% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy Green — Fire Flux | 21.5 · mirage | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy Green — Fire Flux | 20.5 · mirage | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Spirit Academy Green — Fire Flux | 19.5 · mirage | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Nuclear Tigeres — B8 Esports | 21.5 · default-inferno | over | 43.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Nuclear Tigeres — B8 Esports | 20.5 · default-inferno | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Nuclear Tigeres — B8 Esports | 19.5 · default-inferno | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 21.5 · mirage | over | 44.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 19.5 · mirage | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 21.5 · anubis | over | 45.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 20.5 · anubis | over | 59.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 19.5 · anubis | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 21.5 · nuke | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 20.5 · nuke | over | 60.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 19.5 · nuke | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 21.5 · ancient | over | 45.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 20.5 · ancient | over | 53.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 19.5 · ancient | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Ninjas in Pyjamas — 1WIN | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 21.5 · mirage | over | 48.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Bushido Wildcats — Entropy | 19.5 · mirage | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 19:50 UTC+3 | Map round totals | M80 — 6666 | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 41.0% | pending |