Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
214
Accuracy
57.0%
Baseline
51.4%
Brier score
0.251
Log loss
0.698
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260911020820
- Trained
- 2026-09-11 05:06 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-14 09:30 UTC+3 — 2026-07-18 03:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-18 04:00 UTC+3 — 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6156
- Holdout rows
- 1539
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 91 | 56.0% | 0.245 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 77 | 55.8% | 0.251 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 41 | 61.0% | 0.258 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.298 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 40.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=35
35.4% / 45.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.6% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=52
55.3% / 55.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=42
63.3% / 57.1%
0.7-0.8 · n=21
73.8% / 61.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=5
86.8% / 60.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 214 | 57.0% | 122 / 92 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | INFURITY Gaming — OLDMIX | INFURITY Gaming | 54.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bebop — Noir Verse | Bebop | 57.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | K27 — Virtus.Pro | Virtus.Pro | 40.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | MIBR — Alliance | MIBR | 55.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Marsborne — Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 47.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Team Voca — NRG | Team Voca | 60.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Marsborne — Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 47.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Team Voca — NRG | Team Voca | 57.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Brahmas — Smokepoint | Brahmas | 57.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Life's a Game — E-Gaming | Life's a Game | 69.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 UTC+3 | Winner | LAG — E-Gaming | LAG | 65.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 03:50 UTC+3 | Winner | Zomblers LLC — For Fun | Zomblers LLC | 58.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Chicken Coop Esports — Slimy Boogermen | Chicken Coop Esports | 71.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Overtake Sector — Playing for fun | Overtake Sector | 52.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 03:30 UTC+3 | Winner | CLUB 333 — Villainous | Villainous | 48.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:50 UTC+3 | Winner | Marsborne — Olympus | Marsborne | 59.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:20 UTC+3 | Winner | Imperial — paiN | paiN | 44.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Winner | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | antivalue | 48.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:10 UTC+3 | Winner | Villainous — Without a Roof | Villainous | 74.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Imperial — paiN | paiN | 44.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Chicken Coop Esports — antivalue | antivalue | 47.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Villainous — Without a Roof | Villainous | 74.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 01:30 UTC+3 | Winner | SportsBetExpert — FarmVille | SportsBetExpert | 54.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3 | Winner | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | Fluxo | 63.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-10 23:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Fluxo — DENDELE CS | Fluxo | 55.0% | pending |