Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1479
Accuracy
57.2%
Baseline
56.7%
Brier score
0.242
Log loss
0.676
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 969 | 53.3% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 491 | 65.4% | 0.226 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 19 | 47.4% | 0.305 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=35
37.2% / 42.9%
0.4-0.5 · n=500
44.8% / 49.8%
0.5-0.6 · n=469
55.5% / 56.5%
0.6-0.7 · n=456
65.6% / 66.0%
0.7-0.8 · n=16
71.3% / 43.8%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1479 | 57.2% | 838 / 641 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 493 | 65.5% |
| 20.5 | 493 | 54.8% |
| 21.5 | 493 | 51.3% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 13:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 1WIN — B8 | 21.5 · default-dust2 | over | 42.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 1WIN — B8 | 20.5 · default-dust2 | over | 55.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | 1WIN — B8 | 19.5 · default-dust2 | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 21.5 · inferno | over | 32.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 20.5 · inferno | over | 35.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 19.5 · inferno | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 21.5 · ancient | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · ancient | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · ancient | over | 66.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 21.5 · mirage | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · mirage | over | 57.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · mirage | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 21.5 · anubis | over | 31.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 20.5 · anubis | over | 37.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 19.5 · anubis | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 21.5 · cache | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · cache | over | 51.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 21.5 · cache | over | 32.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 20.5 · cache | over | 36.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | ex-Zero Tenacity — Fortress | 19.5 · cache | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · anubis | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 20.5 · anubis | over | 57.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 19.5 · anubis | over | 70.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · ancient | over | 46.0% | pending |