Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1506
Accuracy
57.8%
Baseline
58.1%
Brier score
0.24
Log loss
0.673
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 984 | 53.4% | 0.249 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 502 | 66.9% | 0.221 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 20 | 45.0% | 0.316 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=35
37.6% / 42.9%
0.4-0.5 · n=509
44.8% / 51.1%
0.5-0.6 · n=475
55.6% / 58.1%
0.6-0.7 · n=467
65.7% / 67.7%
0.7-0.8 · n=17
71.5% / 41.2%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1506 | 57.8% | 875 / 631 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 502 | 66.9% |
| 20.5 | 502 | 57.0% |
| 21.5 | 502 | 49.4% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Without a Roof — Marsborne | 19.5 · ancient | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Without a Roof — Marsborne | 21.5 · default-ancient | over | 45.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Without a Roof — Marsborne | 20.5 · default-ancient | over | 58.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Without a Roof — Marsborne | 19.5 · default-ancient | over | 63.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 21.5 · default-mirage | over | 44.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 20.5 · default-mirage | over | 51.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 19.5 · default-mirage | over | 64.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 21.5 · cache | over | 46.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 20.5 · cache | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 19.5 · cache | over | 72.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 21.5 · inferno | over | 47.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 20.5 · inferno | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 19.5 · inferno | over | 73.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 21.5 · mirage | over | 45.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 20.5 · mirage | over | 49.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fluxo — ShindeN | 19.5 · mirage | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 21.5 · nuke | over | 40.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 20.5 · nuke | over | 54.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 19.5 · nuke | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 21.5 · mirage | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 20.5 · mirage | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 19.5 · mirage | over | 64.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 21.5 · cache | over | 43.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 20.5 · cache | over | 53.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | 19.5 · cache | over | 66.0% | pending |