Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1494
Accuracy
57.8%
Baseline
58.2%
Brier score
0.24
Log loss
0.673
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 976 | 53.4% | 0.249 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 498 | 67.1% | 0.22 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 20 | 45.0% | 0.316 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=35
37.6% / 42.9%
0.4-0.5 · n=505
44.8% / 51.1%
0.5-0.6 · n=471
55.6% / 58.2%
0.6-0.7 · n=463
65.7% / 67.8%
0.7-0.8 · n=17
71.5% / 41.2%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1494 | 57.8% | 869 / 625 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 498 | 67.1% |
| 20.5 | 498 | 57.0% |
| 21.5 | 498 | 49.4% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 19.5 · default-nuke | over | 62.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 21.5 · mirage | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 19.5 · mirage | over | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 21.5 · nuke | over | 43.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 20.5 · nuke | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 19.5 · nuke | over | 69.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 21.5 · cache | over | 50.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 19.5 · cache | over | 67.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 21.5 · default-ancient | over | 49.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 20.5 · default-ancient | over | 52.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 19.5 · default-ancient | over | 63.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 21.5 · nuke | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 20.5 · nuke | over | 53.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 19.5 · nuke | over | 61.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 21.5 · mirage | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 20.5 · mirage | over | 54.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 19.5 · mirage | over | 65.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 39.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 43.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 54.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | LAG — NuTorious | 21.5 · inferno | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | LAG — NuTorious | 20.5 · inferno | over | 53.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | LAG — NuTorious | 19.5 · inferno | over | 65.0% | pending |