Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
215
Accuracy
57.2%
Baseline
51.6%
Brier score
0.251
Log loss
0.698
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260911020820
- Trained
- 2026-09-11 05:06 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-14 09:30 UTC+3 — 2026-07-18 03:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-18 04:00 UTC+3 — 2026-09-10 23:45 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6156
- Holdout rows
- 1539
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 92 | 56.5% | 0.245 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 77 | 55.8% | 0.251 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 41 | 61.0% | 0.258 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.298 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 40.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=35
35.4% / 45.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.6% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=53
55.3% / 56.6%
0.6-0.7 · n=42
63.3% / 57.1%
0.7-0.8 · n=21
73.8% / 61.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=5
86.8% / 60.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 215 | 57.2% | 123 / 92 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 16:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Iberian Soul — REVENIX | Iberian Soul | 78.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 14:40 UTC+3 | Winner | CTRL — Prestige Esports | Prestige Esports | 30.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 14:15 UTC+3 | Winner | MORROW — Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 39.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SINNERS — Nuclear Tigeres | SINNERS | 67.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bebop — GoldenGitte | Bebop | 69.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemesis — Wildcard | Nemesis | 54.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Inner Circle Academy — megoshort | Inner Circle Academy | 61.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — SINNERS | SINNERS | 48.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemesis — Wildcard | Nemesis | 50.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | MORROW — Vexar | Vexar | 42.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bebop — GoldenGitte | Bebop | 69.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Metizport — Lavked | Lavked | 50.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 13:50 UTC+3 | Winner | Vexar — SINQU Esports | Vexar | 63.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 12:15 UTC+3 | Winner | FURIA — G2 Esports | FURIA | 65.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | K27 — Virtus.Pro | Virtus.Pro | 41.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SINNERS — The Last Resort | SINNERS | 64.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Inner Circle — B8 | B8 | 36.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | GoldenGitte — Teletubisie | Teletubisie | 28.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ReThink — Drama eSports | Drama eSports | 41.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bebop — Noir Verse | Bebop | 56.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ReThink — Drama eSports | Drama eSports | 41.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Navi Junior — Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 34.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Inner Circle — B8 | B8 | 36.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | INFURITY Gaming — OLDMIX | INFURITY Gaming | 54.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bebop — Noir Verse | Bebop | 57.0% | won |