Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
225
Accuracy
56.9%
Baseline
51.6%
Brier score
0.251
Log loss
0.699
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260913020712
- Trained
- 2026-09-13 05:06 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-16 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-22 19:55 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-22 20:00 UTC+3 — 2026-09-13 02:45 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6202
- Holdout rows
- 1553
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 91 | 54.9% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 86 | 57.0% | 0.249 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 44 | 61.4% | 0.254 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.369 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 35.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=39
35.0% / 48.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.8% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=52
55.1% / 53.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=47
63.9% / 61.7%
0.7-0.8 · n=24
73.6% / 58.3%
0.8-0.9 · n=4
86.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 225 | 56.9% | 128 / 97 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 16:55 UTC+3 | Winner | Strael Bora — megoshort | Strael Bora | 64.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-06 16:20 UTC+3 | Winner | mouz NXT — Misa | Misa | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Gothic — A Great Chaos | Gothic | 59.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Permitta — WBT | WBT | 34.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | BERG — mellren | mellren | 30.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Vexar — Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 34.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | KUUSAMO — PCIFIC Esports | PCIFIC Esports | 24.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Basement Boys — Dark Moon | Basement Boys | 73.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Privateer Gaming — HAVU | HAVU | 38.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-06 14:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Fokus — Nemiga | Fokus | 57.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 14:20 UTC+3 | Winner | Black Phoenix — HAVU | HAVU | 48.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Inner Circle Prospects — ENCE Prospect | Inner Circle Prospects | 89.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | yologang420 — Navi Junior | Navi Junior | 24.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SAW Youngsters — Misa | Misa | 50.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-06 13:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Permitta — Navi Junior | Navi Junior | 42.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — Fnatic | Fnatic | 45.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SINQU REHTI — Ascend | SINQU REHTI | 53.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | G2 Ares — Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 35.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | megoshort — train launcher | megoshort | 64.0% | lost |