Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
225
Accuracy
56.9%
Baseline
51.6%
Brier score
0.251
Log loss
0.699
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260913020712
- Trained
- 2026-09-13 05:06 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-16 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-22 19:55 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-22 20:00 UTC+3 — 2026-09-13 02:45 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6202
- Holdout rows
- 1553
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 91 | 54.9% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 86 | 57.0% | 0.249 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 44 | 61.4% | 0.254 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.369 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 35.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=39
35.0% / 48.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.8% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=52
55.1% / 53.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=47
63.9% / 61.7%
0.7-0.8 · n=24
73.6% / 58.3%
0.8-0.9 · n=4
86.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 225 | 56.9% | 128 / 97 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | LookingForOrg — Sunday School | LookingForOrg | 57.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Mindfreak — Abyssal | Mindfreak | 57.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemesis — FORZE Reload | Nemesis | 68.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemesis — FORZE Reload | Nemesis | 67.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-07 11:10 UTC+3 | Winner | CTRL — INFURITY Gaming | INFURITY Gaming | 40.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ex-RUSTEC — Fortress | ex-RUSTEC | 80.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | mouz NXT — The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 46.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | MORROW — KUUSAMO | MORROW | 54.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ex-RUSTEC — Fortress | ex-RUSTEC | 76.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 21:15 UTC+3 | Winner | M33xAvanMarket — DINERO | M33xAvanMarket | 70.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 21:15 UTC+3 | Winner | TitanFlow — valarmorghulis | TitanFlow | 61.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Galorys — ALKA | ALKA | 34.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | A Great Chaos — Permitta | Permitta | 32.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Gothic — WBT | WBT | 37.0% | unknown | |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Dark Moon — Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 18.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | BERG — Privateer Gaming | BERG | 68.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | mellren — HAVU | mellren | 61.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Basement Boys — Vexar | Basement Boys | 65.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SPARTA — ex-Zero Tenacity | SPARTA | 52.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-06 18:30 UTC+3 | Winner | BOJONG — MASQ | MASQ | 43.0% | unknown | |
| 2026-09-06 18:30 UTC+3 | Winner | gothboiclique — Diamant Esports | Diamant Esports | 40.0% | unknown | |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bounty Hunters Esports — Imperial | Imperial | 28.0% | unknown | |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | PsychoFace — Just Players | PsychoFace | 51.0% | unknown | |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | MOUZ — Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 26.0% | unknown | |
| 2026-09-06 16:55 UTC+3 | Winner | Noir Verse — Fire Flux | Noir Verse | 58.0% | unknown |