Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1443
Accuracy
57.3%
Baseline
56.5%
Brier score
0.241
Log loss
0.675
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 949 | 53.2% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 479 | 65.6% | 0.226 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 15 | 53.3% | 0.28 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=35
37.2% / 42.9%
0.4-0.5 · n=488
44.9% / 49.4%
0.5-0.6 · n=461
55.5% / 56.0%
0.6-0.7 · n=444
65.5% / 66.2%
0.7-0.8 · n=12
70.9% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1443 | 57.3% | 815 / 628 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 481 | 65.7% |
| 20.5 | 481 | 54.5% |
| 21.5 | 481 | 51.8% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · inferno | over | 61.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · inferno | over | 69.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 21.5 · mirage | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · mirage | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 21.5 · ancient | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · ancient | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · ancient | over | 64.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 21.5 · mirage | over | 37.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 19.5 · mirage | over | 59.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 36.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 62.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fire Flux — TSA Green | 21.5 · cache | over | 40.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fire Flux — TSA Green | 20.5 · cache | over | 53.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fire Flux — TSA Green | 19.5 · cache | over | 63.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | WBT — Banger Gang | 21.5 · mirage | over | 46.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | WBT — Banger Gang | 20.5 · mirage | over | 50.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | WBT — Banger Gang | 19.5 · mirage | over | 66.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | LFO 7 — Nexora | 21.5 · mirage | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | LFO 7 — Nexora | 20.5 · mirage | over | 61.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | LFO 7 — Nexora | 19.5 · mirage | over | 67.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Zotix — ex-VP.Prodigy | 21.5 · anubis | over | 39.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Zotix — ex-VP.Prodigy | 20.5 · anubis | over | 54.0% | pending |