Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1509
Accuracy
57.3%
Baseline
57.5%
Brier score
0.241
Log loss
0.676
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 990 | 53.1% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 498 | 65.9% | 0.224 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 21 | 47.6% | 0.305 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=40
37.5% / 40.0%
0.4-0.5 · n=510
44.9% / 51.2%
0.5-0.6 · n=480
55.5% / 57.7%
0.6-0.7 · n=458
65.7% / 66.4%
0.7-0.8 · n=18
71.4% / 44.4%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1509 | 57.3% | 867 / 642 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 503 | 65.8% |
| 20.5 | 503 | 56.1% |
| 21.5 | 503 | 49.9% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 21.5 · nuke | over | 43.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 20.5 · nuke | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 19.5 · nuke | over | 70.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 21.5 · inferno | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 20.5 · inferno | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 19.5 · inferno | over | 61.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 21.5 · inferno | over | 48.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · inferno | over | 61.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · inferno | over | 69.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 21.5 · mirage | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · mirage | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 21.5 · ancient | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · ancient | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · ancient | over | 64.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 21.5 · mirage | over | 37.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 19.5 · mirage | over | 59.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 36.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 62.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fire Flux — TSA Green | 21.5 · cache | over | 40.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fire Flux — TSA Green | 20.5 · cache | over | 53.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fire Flux — TSA Green | 19.5 · cache | over | 63.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | WBT — Banger Gang | 21.5 · mirage | over | 46.0% | won |