Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1488
Accuracy
57.5%
Baseline
58.1%
Brier score
0.241
Log loss
0.674
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 977 | 53.1% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 491 | 66.4% | 0.223 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 20 | 50.0% | 0.294 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=38
37.4% / 39.5%
0.4-0.5 · n=502
44.9% / 51.8%
0.5-0.6 · n=475
55.5% / 58.3%
0.6-0.7 · n=453
65.6% / 66.9%
0.7-0.8 · n=17
71.4% / 47.1%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1488 | 57.5% | 864 / 624 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 496 | 66.5% |
| 20.5 | 496 | 56.5% |
| 21.5 | 496 | 49.4% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Without a Roof — LAG | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 65.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Without a Roof — LAG | 21.5 · ancient | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Without a Roof — LAG | 20.5 · ancient | over | 49.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Without a Roof — LAG | 19.5 · ancient | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 21.5 · cache | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 20.5 · cache | over | 57.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 21.5 · nuke | over | 43.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 20.5 · nuke | over | 59.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 19.5 · nuke | over | 70.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 21.5 · inferno | over | 41.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 20.5 · inferno | over | 56.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DENDELE CS — Imperial | 19.5 · inferno | over | 61.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 21.5 · inferno | over | 48.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · inferno | over | 61.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · inferno | over | 69.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 21.5 · mirage | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · mirage | over | 69.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 21.5 · ancient | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 20.5 · ancient | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | BOJONG — MADMANgg | 19.5 · ancient | over | 64.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 21.5 · mirage | over | 37.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 20.5 · mirage | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Map round totals | DINERO — Nexora | 19.5 · mirage | over | 59.0% | won |