Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
225
Accuracy
56.9%
Baseline
51.6%
Brier score
0.251
Log loss
0.699
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 91 | 54.9% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 86 | 57.0% | 0.249 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 44 | 61.4% | 0.254 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.369 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 35.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=39
35.0% / 48.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.8% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=52
55.1% / 53.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=47
63.9% / 61.7%
0.7-0.8 · n=24
73.6% / 58.3%
0.8-0.9 · n=4
86.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 225 | 56.9% | 128 / 97 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ex-RUSTEC — Entropy | ex-RUSTEC | 60.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bushido Wildcats — NaVi Youth | Bushido Wildcats | 51.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Basement Boys — WBT Academy | WBT Academy | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | mouz NXT — Dark Moon | mouz NXT | 52.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 UTC+3 | Winner | WBT — Basement Boys | WBT | 60.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemiga — Color | Nemiga | 79.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemiga — Color | Nemiga | 78.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | G2 Esports — Astralis | G2 Esports | 70.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | FURIA — GamerLegion | FURIA | 65.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 14:20 UTC+3 | Winner | Alter Ego — Finishers | Alter Ego | 75.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Entropy — SAW Youngsters | Entropy | 51.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Fortress — ENCE | ENCE | 30.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | KUUSAMO — ROUNDS | ROUNDS | 42.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ex-Zero Tenacity — Privateer Gaming | ex-Zero Tenacity | 67.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Fortress — ENCE | ENCE | 29.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | mouz NXT — Team UNiTY | Team UNiTY | 39.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 13:45 UTC+3 | Winner | BIG Academy — MORROW | BIG Academy | 78.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 13:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Misa — Passion Academy | Misa | 64.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Parivision — TYLOO | Parivision | 50.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | HOTU — Betclic | HOTU | 63.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | HOTU — Betclic | HOTU | 61.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 UTC+3 | Winner | BIG — BetBoom | BetBoom | 35.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 11:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Alter Ego — Sunday School | Sunday School | 49.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 11:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Finishers — Abyssal | Abyssal | 48.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bushido Wildcats — wazabi | Bushido Wildcats | 70.0% | pending |