Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
223
Accuracy
57.0%
Baseline
51.6%
Brier score
0.25
Log loss
0.697
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 90 | 54.4% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 86 | 57.0% | 0.249 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 43 | 62.8% | 0.248 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.369 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 35.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=39
35.0% / 48.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.8% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=51
55.1% / 52.9%
0.6-0.7 · n=47
63.9% / 61.7%
0.7-0.8 · n=23
73.7% / 60.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=4
86.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 223 | 57.0% | 127 / 96 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 06:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Magic Esport — FaZe Clan | FaZe Clan | 32.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 03:30 UTC+3 | Winner | LAG — Empire | LAG | 60.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 21:40 UTC+3 | Winner | gothboiclique — MADMANgg | MADMANgg | 38.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 21:15 UTC+3 | Winner | DINERO — BOJONG | DINERO | 51.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Banger Gang — YOUNGLINGS | Banger Gang | 65.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Team WW — Novaq | Team WW | 55.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Team WW — Novaq | Team WW | 55.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Dark Moon — WBT Academy | WBT Academy | 36.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Dark Moon — WBT | WBT | 29.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | mouz NXT — Basement Boys | mouz NXT | 52.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Azuolas — G2 Ares | Azuolas | 62.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | MORROW — Revise | MORROW | 51.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Black Phoenix — PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 40.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Azuolas — G2 Ares | Azuolas | 61.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 18:45 UTC+3 | Winner | Sabertooth — Golden Horde | Sabertooth | 60.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 18:30 UTC+3 | Winner | valarmorghulis — Anger | valarmorghulis | 59.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 UTC+3 | Winner | K27 — LP | K27 | 62.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 UTC+3 | Winner | K27 — LP | K27 | 62.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 17:25 UTC+3 | Winner | Permitta — train launcher | Permitta | 57.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 17:20 UTC+3 | Winner | ex-RUSTEC — Entropy | ex-RUSTEC | 63.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 17:15 UTC+3 | Winner | Phantom Academy — Misa | Phantom Academy | 51.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | A Great Chaos — BIG Academy | BIG Academy | 23.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | G2 Ares — ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 33.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ex-RUSTEC — Entropy | ex-RUSTEC | 60.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Bushido Wildcats — NaVi Youth | Bushido Wildcats | 51.0% | won |