Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
221
Accuracy
56.6%
Baseline
51.6%
Brier score
0.252
Log loss
0.7
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 90 | 54.4% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 84 | 56.0% | 0.252 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 43 | 62.8% | 0.248 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.369 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 35.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=38
35.1% / 50.0%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.8% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=51
55.1% / 52.9%
0.6-0.7 · n=46
63.8% / 60.9%
0.7-0.8 · n=23
73.7% / 60.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=4
86.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 221 | 56.6% | 125 / 96 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 11:10 UTC+3 | Winner | BIG — G2 Esports | G2 Esports | 31.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SINQU Esports — Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 34.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — 1WIN | 1WIN | 40.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Entropy — ENCE | Entropy | 56.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | HOTU — Wildcard | HOTU | 57.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | K27 — Virtus.Pro | Virtus.Pro | 42.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Entropy — ENCE | Entropy | 56.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 5star eSports — NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | HOTU — Wildcard | HOTU | 55.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | K27 — Virtus.Pro | Virtus.Pro | 39.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — 1WIN | 1WIN | 43.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 5star eSports — NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Enjoy — Falcons Force | Enjoy | 59.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 09:40 UTC+3 | Winner | LFO 8 — Finishers | Finishers | 45.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 09:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Flyquest — Devious | Flyquest | 77.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Legacy — Alliance | Legacy | 60.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Flyquest — Devious | Flyquest | 74.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | LFO 8 — Finishers | Finishers | 44.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 9z Team — MIBR | 9z Team | 75.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 UTC+3 | Winner | TYLOO — The Huns Esports | TYLOO | 79.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 UTC+3 | Winner | TYLOO — The Huns Esports | TYLOO | 79.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 5star eSports — The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 28.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Magic Esport — FaZe Clan | FaZe Clan | 32.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 03:30 UTC+3 | Winner | LAG — Empire | LAG | 60.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-08 21:40 UTC+3 | Winner | gothboiclique — MADMANgg | MADMANgg | 38.0% | lost |