Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
219
Accuracy
56.2%
Baseline
51.1%
Brier score
0.253
Log loss
0.702
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 89 | 53.9% | 0.249 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 83 | 55.4% | 0.254 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 43 | 62.8% | 0.248 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.369 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 35.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=38
35.1% / 50.0%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.8% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=50
55.0% / 52.0%
0.6-0.7 · n=45
63.7% / 60.0%
0.7-0.8 · n=23
73.7% / 60.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=4
86.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 219 | 56.2% | 123 / 96 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 18:30 UTC+3 | Winner | valarmorghulis — FLXRE | valarmorghulis | 82.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 UTC+3 | Winner | BOJONG — LFO 7 | LFO 7 | 49.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nuclear Tigeres — INOX Division | Nuclear Tigeres | 55.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 UTC+3 | Winner | INOX Division — Nuclear Tigeres | INOX Division | 62.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 17:30 UTC+3 | Winner | 100 Thieves — BBL | 100 Thieves | 88.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 100 Thieves — BBL | 100 Thieves | 86.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Eyeballers — Nemesis | Eyeballers | 55.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — SINNERS | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 58.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Eyeballers — Nemesis | Eyeballers | 56.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ShindeN — Fluxo | ShindeN | 52.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — SINNERS | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 60.0% | unknown | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Saint Sinners — Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 36.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Saint Sinners — Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 36.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | EAC — Just Players | Just Players | 43.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | ShindeN — Fluxo | ShindeN | 52.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Phantom Academy — ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 37.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC+3 | Winner | NaVi Youth — Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 39.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 16:15 UTC+3 | Winner | TYLOO — NEXVOID | TYLOO | 68.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | HOTU — Nemiga | HOTU | 56.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | BetBoom — Astralis | Astralis | 50.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Parivision — FURIA | FURIA | 25.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Nemiga — HOTU | HOTU | 47.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 14:15 UTC+3 | Winner | 3DMAX — Acend | 3DMAX | 52.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | The Huns Esports — 5star eSports | 5star eSports | 50.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 UTC+3 | Winner | B8 — Bet-M 33 | B8 | 75.0% | pending |