Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
202
Accuracy
53.0%
Baseline
56.4%
Brier score
0.27
Log loss
0.746
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 94 | 51.1% | 0.252 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 70 | 60.0% | 0.242 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 21 | 38.1% | 0.375 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 15 | 53.3% | 0.351 |
| 0.9-1.0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.423 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.0-0.1 · n=2
8.8% / 50.0%
0.1-0.2 · n=15
16.3% / 46.7%
0.2-0.3 · n=21
25.5% / 61.9%
0.3-0.4 · n=58
35.5% / 32.8%
0.4-0.5 · n=63
44.2% / 47.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=31
55.3% / 48.4%
0.6-0.7 · n=12
64.4% / 25.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total maps | 202 | 53.0% | 88 / 114 |
By line
Total maps
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 202 | 53.0% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 18:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | BOJONG — MASQ | 2.5 | over | 32.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 18:30 UTC+3 | Total maps | gothboiclique — Diamant Esports | 2.5 | over | 45.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Bounty Hunters Esports — Imperial | 2.5 | over | 59.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | PsychoFace — Just Players | 2.5 | over | 44.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 16:55 UTC+3 | Total maps | Strael Bora — megoshort | 2.5 | over | 44.0% | won |
| 2026-09-06 16:55 UTC+3 | Total maps | Noir Verse — Fire Flux | 2.5 | over | 42.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 16:20 UTC+3 | Total maps | mouz NXT — Misa | 2.5 | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Gothic — A Great Chaos | 2.5 | over | 17.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | BERG — mellren | 2.5 | over | 23.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Privateer Gaming — HAVU | 2.5 | over | 43.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Basement Boys — Dark Moon | 2.5 | over | 36.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Permitta — WBT | 2.5 | over | 35.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | KUUSAMO — PCIFIC Esports | 2.5 | over | 27.0% | won |
| 2026-09-06 14:20 UTC+3 | Total maps | Black Phoenix — HAVU | 2.5 | over | 45.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Inner Circle Prospects — ENCE Prospect | 2.5 | over | 35.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | yologang420 — NaVi Youth | 2.5 | over | 41.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | SAW Youngsters — Misa | 2.5 | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | Ninjas in Pyjamas — Fnatic | 2.5 | over | 24.0% | won |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | SINQU REHTI — Ascend | 2.5 | over | 8.0% | won |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | G2 Ares — Bushido Wildcats | 2.5 | over | 58.0% | won |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC+3 | Total maps | megoshort — train launcher | 2.5 | over | 34.0% | won |