Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1479
Accuracy
57.5%
Baseline
58.2%
Brier score
0.24
Log loss
0.673
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 970 | 53.1% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 490 | 66.5% | 0.222 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 19 | 52.6% | 0.283 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=38
37.4% / 39.5%
0.4-0.5 · n=499
44.9% / 51.9%
0.5-0.6 · n=471
55.5% / 58.4%
0.6-0.7 · n=452
65.6% / 67.0%
0.7-0.8 · n=16
71.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1479 | 57.5% | 861 / 618 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 493 | 66.7% |
| 20.5 | 493 | 56.6% |
| 21.5 | 493 | 49.3% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · cache | over | 47.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 21.5 · inferno | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 20.5 · inferno | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 19.5 · inferno | over | 62.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 19.5 · dust2 | over | 65.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 21.5 · ancient | over | 43.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 20.5 · ancient | over | 55.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 19.5 · ancient | over | 71.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 21.5 · default-inferno | over | 45.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 20.5 · default-inferno | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 19.5 · default-inferno | over | 70.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 21.5 · default-ancient | over | 43.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 20.5 · default-ancient | over | 51.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 19.5 · default-ancient | over | 65.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 21.5 · default-nuke | over | 43.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 20.5 · default-nuke | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Legacy — MIBR | 19.5 · default-nuke | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 21.5 · default-nuke | over | 47.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 20.5 · default-nuke | over | 55.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | NRG — Team Liquid | 19.5 · default-nuke | over | 62.0% | won |