Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
222
Accuracy
56.8%
Baseline
51.4%
Brier score
0.251
Log loss
0.699
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021520
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:11 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 91 | 54.9% | 0.247 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 86 | 55.8% | 0.253 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 41 | 63.4% | 0.246 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.369 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 35.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=38
35.1% / 50.0%
0.4-0.5 · n=40
45.7% / 42.5%
0.5-0.6 · n=51
55.2% / 52.9%
0.6-0.7 · n=48
63.6% / 60.4%
0.7-0.8 · n=21
73.7% / 61.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=4
86.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 222 | 56.8% | 126 / 96 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Without a Roof — NRG | NRG | 29.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Team Voca — Villainous | Team Voca | 57.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Imperial — Galorys | Imperial | 77.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Galorys — Imperial | Imperial | 22.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 21:45 UTC+3 | Winner | pivstar — DINERO | DINERO | 50.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 21:15 UTC+3 | Winner | MASQ — MADMANgg | MASQ | 73.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 21:15 UTC+3 | Winner | K27 — Team WW | K27 | 71.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Zotix — B8 Academy | B8 Academy | 32.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | WBT — eSuba | eSuba | 46.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | DINERO — BOJONG | DINERO | 68.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | EsportBERG — Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 30.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Dark Moon — Spirit Academy Green | Dark Moon | 55.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Falcons Force — BERG | Falcons Force | 59.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Banda Chuya — Jumbo Team | Jumbo Team | 50.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | WBT Academy — eSuba | eSuba | 34.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Nexora — ROUNDS | Nexora | 64.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | XI Esport — ex-VP.Prodigy | XI Esport | 62.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | K27 — Team WW | K27 | 66.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Fire Flux — Drama eSports | Drama eSports | 48.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:15 UTC+3 | Winner | Ninjas in Pyjamas — Fokus | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 60.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Turma do Pagode — DENDELE CS | DENDELE CS | 48.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Mai Tai — Permitta | Permitta | 29.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Inner Circle — Nemiga | Inner Circle | 68.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | 1WIN — INFINITE | 1WIN | 70.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC+3 | Winner | DENDELE CS — Turma do Pagode | DENDELE CS | 65.0% | pending |