Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
1464
Accuracy
57.4%
Baseline
58.5%
Brier score
0.24
Log loss
0.673
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 961 | 53.0% | 0.248 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 484 | 66.5% | 0.222 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 19 | 52.6% | 0.283 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=3
26.8% / 33.3%
0.3-0.4 · n=36
37.3% / 41.7%
0.4-0.5 · n=494
44.9% / 52.2%
0.5-0.6 · n=467
55.5% / 58.5%
0.6-0.7 · n=448
65.6% / 67.2%
0.7-0.8 · n=16
71.5% / 50.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Map round totals | 1464 | 57.4% | 856 / 608 |
By line
Map round totals
| Line | Settled | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 488 | 67.0% |
| 20.5 | 488 | 56.4% |
| 21.5 | 488 | 49.0% |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Lavked — Drama eSports | 20.5 · inferno | over | 52.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Lavked — Drama eSports | 19.5 · inferno | over | 66.0% | unknown |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · anubis | over | 48.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 20.5 · anubis | over | 57.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 19.5 · anubis | over | 70.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 21.5 · ancient | over | 41.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · ancient | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · ancient | over | 66.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 21.5 · mirage | over | 45.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · mirage | over | 57.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · mirage | over | 64.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · ancient | over | 46.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 20.5 · ancient | over | 56.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 19.5 · ancient | over | 67.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 21.5 · cache | over | 42.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 20.5 · cache | over | 51.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Fokus — Virtus.Pro | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | won |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 21.5 · cache | over | 47.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 20.5 · cache | over | 56.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Noir Verse — Phantom Academy | 19.5 · cache | over | 68.0% | lost |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 21.5 · inferno | over | 42.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 20.5 · inferno | over | 58.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 19.5 · inferno | over | 62.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 21.5 · dust2 | over | 44.0% | pending |
| 2026-09-12 09:20 UTC+3 | Map round totals | Omega — Rune Eaters | 20.5 · dust2 | over | 58.0% | pending |