Transparent production metrics
How the CSP model works
The headline contains only the production match-winner model and one frozen prediction per match.
Settled
216
Accuracy
56.9%
Baseline
51.9%
Brier score
0.251
Log loss
0.699
Production
Match winner
- Model version
- 20260912021135
- Trained
- 2026-09-12 05:06 UTC+3
- Training window
- 2026-01-15 06:00 UTC+3 — 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC+3
- Holdout window
- 2026-07-21 17:15 UTC+3 — 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3
- Training rows
- 6190
- Holdout rows
- 1547
Quality by confidence
| Stated probability | Settled | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.6 | 91 | 56.0% | 0.245 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 79 | 55.7% | 0.251 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 41 | 61.0% | 0.258 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.298 |
Calibration
Predicted probability compared with the observed outcome rate.
0.2-0.3 · n=20
26.2% / 40.0%
0.3-0.4 · n=36
35.3% / 47.2%
0.4-0.5 · n=39
45.6% / 43.6%
0.5-0.6 · n=52
55.3% / 55.8%
0.6-0.7 · n=43
63.3% / 58.1%
0.7-0.8 · n=21
73.8% / 61.9%
0.8-0.9 · n=5
86.8% / 60.0%
Separate from the headline
Experimental models
Map totals and round totals are still being validated and never affect the production winner accuracy shown above.
By market
| Market | Settled | Accuracy | Won / Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 216 | 56.9% | 123 / 93 |
Immutable settled history
Prediction archive
| Date | Market | Match | Line/Map | Pick | Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Team Voca — Without a Roof | Team Voca | 65.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Team Voca — Without a Roof | Team Voca | 65.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Winner | NRG — Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 40.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 UTC+3 | Winner | NRG — Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 40.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Marsborne — E-Gaming | Marsborne | 59.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Iowa Stormboar — SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 37.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 UTC+3 | Winner | LAG — NuTorious | LAG | 60.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 UTC+3 | Winner | LAG — NuTorious | LAG | 60.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Fluxo — ShindeN | Fluxo | 61.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Fluxo — ShindeN | Fluxo | 64.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | antivalue — Team Voca | Team Voca | 19.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Without a Roof — Marsborne | Marsborne | 34.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Without a Roof — Marsborne | Marsborne | 34.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 UTC+3 | Winner | antivalue — Team Voca | Team Voca | 20.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 01:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Overtake Sector — FarmVille | FarmVille | 37.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Life's a Game — Without a Roof | Life's a Game | 69.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | SportsBetExpert | 69.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 UTC+3 | Winner | SportsBetExpert — Detonate | SportsBetExpert | 68.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Winner | DENDELE CS — Imperial | DENDELE CS | 52.0% | won | |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Winner | DENDELE CS — Imperial | Imperial | 46.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 UTC+3 | Winner | Without a Roof — LAG | LAG | 32.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 21:30 UTC+3 | Winner | BOJONG — MADMANgg | MADMANgg | 42.0% | lost | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | Zotix — ex-VP.Prodigy | Zotix | 53.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | WBT — Banger Gang | WBT | 53.0% | pending | |
| 2026-09-11 20:30 UTC+3 | Winner | DINERO — Nexora | DINERO | 61.0% | lost |